Monday, October 4, 2010

The Twins in "Playoff Style" Games

The regular season is complete and the Twins are getting focused on the postseason tournament. There were struggles down the stretch for the team and there are many questions that are left to be answered as the team enters the postseason. But I will leave some of that discussion to other Twins bloggers.

My focus is going to be a statistical look at the Twins and the amount of runs they score or allow. For the most part, in playoff baseball there isn't going to be that many runs scored. So let's take a look at how the Twins have fared in games that are considered "playoff style."

The first statistic to look at is how the Twins do when they score a minimum amount of runs.

Below you will find their runs scored distribution for the 2010 season.
Runs Games Wins Loss  W-L%
+----+-----+----+----+-----+
    0    8    0    8   .000
    1   15    2   13   .133
    2   20    9   11   .450
    3   15    2   13   .133
    4   24   15    9   .625
    5   18   13    5   .722
    6   20   17    3   .850
    7   10    9    1   .900
    8   11    9    2   .818
    9    7    6    1   .857
   10    6    5    1   .833
   11    2    2    0  1.000
   12    2    2    0  1.000
   13    1    1    0  1.000
   15    1    1    0  1.000
   19    1    1    0  1.000
+----+-----+----+----+-----+
It is easy to see where the cutoff is for the Twins. The point that the Twins become a winning team is when they score four runs or more. Prior to that the team is below .500. Four runs is a lot to score in a postseason game. So it will be interesting to see how the Twins do in this category. The pitching of the Yankees has not been spectacular as of late so this might allow the Twins to squeak above that four run mark. The problem is the Twins will likely face CC Sabathia twice in the series, if it goes beyond three games. He is not an easy pitcher to get one run against, let alone score four runs on.

The other important statistic to look at when it comes to the playoffs is the amount of runs allowed in games over the 2010 season.

Below you will find a chart of the Twins runs allowed distribution.
Runs Games Wins Loss  W-L%
+----+-----+----+----+-----+
    0    13   13    0 1.000
    1    16   15    1  .938
    2    18   14    4  .778
    3    32   26    6  .813
    4    22   14    8  .636
    5    13    3   10  .231
    6    15    6    9  .400
    7    12    2   10  .167
    8     5    0    5  .000
    9     3    0    3  .000
   10     7    1    6  .143
   11     4    0    4  .000
   13     1    0    1  .000
+----+-----+----+----+-----+
Once again the magic number is four. If the Twins allow four or fewer runs they are far above .500. In fact the Twins are 81-19 for an outstanding .810 winning percentage, in games that they allow four runs or less.

The back of the Twins bullpen is stacked with former closers. I would like to see Ron Gardenhire turn to the bullpen much earlier in the postseason if the starters are pitching themselves into trouble. It is imperative that the Twins hold their opponent under four runs a game. There are extra days of rest during the postseason so the Twins can turn to their bullpen much more frequently. There is no worry because the relief core can pitch in back to back games. Each player can go out and put everything on the line.

As the postseason approaches keep your fingers crossed that the Twins can get four men or more across the plate. If they do this they will have a great chance to get past their postseason enemy, the Yankees.

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