Monday, July 17, 2017

Appreciating Max Kepler

Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Time and patience are two key aspects when it comes to developing prospects. Max Kepler fits this mold more than a lot of other young players. When the Twins signed him as a teenager out of Germany, the club knew of his athletic ability but Europe hasn’t exactly been a hot bed for MLB prospects.

Kepler has played just over 200 games at the MLB level and he has found a way to provide value through all aspects of his game. There are areas that could still improve but Kepler is on a course to be an above average big leaguer for years to come.

Only two short seasons ago, Kepler exploded at Double-A on his way to winning Southern League MVP honors. He hit .322/.416/.531 with 56 extra-base hits across 431 at-bats. These numbers were an improvement from his career totals in the minor leagues (.281/.363/.446) and many prospect followers believed he had put it all together.

Following a brief September call-up in 2015, Kepler became a main-stay in the Twins line-up during 2016. He struggled through his rookie campaign by hitting .235/.309/.424 with 17 home runs and 20 doubles. Hitting isn't the only part of his game as he provided 4.4 runs on the bases according to BsR and six defensive runs saved. 

Kepler has made measurable strides in his second full MLB season. Compared to 2016, he's raised his batting average over 30 points and this has helped him to get on base almost 34% of the time. His improved his wRC+ from 93 in 2016 to 108 in 2017. According to both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, the only position player worth more WAR this season is Miguel Sano.

He's hitting the ball hard as well. Last season, Kepler hit the ball at an average exit velocity of 89.4 mph. He ranked 81st among 225 hitters with a minimum of 250 balls in play which ranked him higher than the likes of Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado. This season, his average exit velocity has dipped to 88.4 but he ranks 64th among 147 players with 200 at-bats. He's hitting the ball harder than Anthony Rizzo,  Joey Votto, and Evan Longoria. 

Earlier this season, I identified Kepler as one of a trio of players who was helping to spur Minnesota's defensive turnaround. He ranks in the top-12 among AL outfielders in defensive runs saved. This spring MLB Advanced Media introduced a new Statcast metric called Catch Probability, which measures how likely a fielder is to catch a given ball in play based on its distance and hang time. Kepler leads MLB in "three-star outs" as he has gone 15-for-17 in those opportunities. Three-star outs have a 51-75% chance of being caught. 

To stay in the hunt for a division title, the Twins need young core players to perform at a high level. Jacque Jones was one of those players for the Twins in the early 2000s. He didn't have a season worth more than 2.0 WAR until he was 27-years old. Kepler has managed that total in each of his first two seasons and he won't be 25 until next February. 

Kepler may never be an All-Star like Miguel Sano or track down fly-balls as well as Byron Buxton but he is slowly improving. His offense and defense continue to improve and he is part of the team's long-term plans. Fans should appreciate the value he has brought to the 2017 version of the Twins. 

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